Why oil is so expensive / The cold fall of 2008

"Israel must be wiped off the map"

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

[ disclaim: I do NOT possess any privileged information about the subject]

Let us start by with a rule: Israel has always managed to stop any development, in nearby countries, of any weaponisable nuclear technology. They have done that in the past with the Osiraq Iraqi reactor and recently with a Syrian reactor made with North Korea assistance.In both cases the plans have been executed flawless with no loss of hardware and no casualties in the Israeli side.

In some sense this is the continuation of Kennedy doctrine from the '60s ( Cuban Missile Crisis ). Any possible nuclear weapon would be considered real and pointed the ours head (and the heads of ours friends) and that it will be used in appropriate conditions. Until proved otherwise.

This seems to contradict our western concept of "innocent until proved guilty", but in a nuclear age, where a target can be n-bombed in a few minutes, without any warning and without any possible defense, that makes sense (although questionable). By the way, that was the principle behind the USA invasion of Iraq, although never clearly stated.

As a result any middle east country with ambition to produce weaponisable materials will take countermeasures against a foreseeable attack. Syria defend itself using camouflage and buying a new generation of radar. The camouflage failed completely, as the intelligence ( Israeli and/or American ) managed to get, not only excellent satellite images, but also amazing pictures, taken from the ground. Apparently the radar network was not operational yet ( and this is a hint about the importance of timing ).

What about Iran? Iran is now mastering the capacity of enrich uranium. With highly enriched uranium it can make ( if it choose to ) atomic bombs. Uranium bombs are relatively ease to build compared to plutonium bombs. If we have learn anything, we will now that Israel is going to try to destroy Iranian facilities.

What is Iran doing? Theoretically Iran could choose to prove that it is not going to build a bomb, submitting itself the "no proliferation treaty" (NPT) - it has signed - inspections. That path has not be chosen.

Iran is building its facilities underground, for two reasons. First this keep the facilities hidden, second it turn them more resistant to bombs. Also it has bough, from Russia, surface-to-air, short and medium range, Tor missiles and it is probably installing S-300 long range missiles. In the near future it will have S-400 missiles , ( see also http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=21983&sectionid=351020602 )

What is Israel going to do? It sure could use some support from the United States. Soft-support and/or hard-support.

In the soft side it needs intelligence and permission and protection to refuel (in air or at the ground) over or in Iraq. In the hard side it could use a couple of stealth bombers or a few radar seeking missiles.

However the new Russian S-400 missiles seem to have technology to counterbalance the American hardware.

After installing S-400 missiles, Iran will be invulnerable to an air strike and, in reality, to a ground attack, even from American strikes. Then it would be free to use its nuclear facilities to enrich uranium to a weapons-grade quality and make a few atomic bombs. This is why Iran has been trying to make some kind of a agreement with USA and/or UE, because they know that only after having S-400 missiles ready, they can proceed to make weaponisable uranium.

So let us look at the time line

past - Tor missiles installed
2008 Nov 04 - USA Elections
2009 Jan 20 - Inauguration Day (New USA president)
2009 ??? ?? - S-300 installed (Iran invulnerable to an Israeli air attack)
future ???? - S-400 installed (Iran invulnerable to an American air attack)

Is improvable an attack before the USA elections, since that will help the democrat candidate (and Israel prefers the republican candidate). Is improvable an attack after the Inauguration Day, since Israel can be dealing with a less favorable president (even if it is a republican) and may be dealing with some S-300 already installed.

So Israel must attack before, 2009 Jan 20, probably after 2008 Nov 04, with or without American hardware. Without American hardware Israelis may face some casualties due to Tor missiles.

The result? Iranians will target any civilian (or military) ship in the Hormuz strait probably with modified Silkworm missiles that can traverse the strait.

The price of oil will double overnight and we could have supply problems in many western countries.

Probably USA will attack Iranian shore-based launchers, probably with UN security council support. But they would have to destroy silkworm bases again and again to turn the Hormuz strait in a relatively safe place.

I know that a lot of people know this, and this is why the price of oil is already so high.

More links:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7486971.stm

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/06/29/us.iran/index.html